The AI Blast Zone · Evidence register
The evidence behind every link
Every relationship in the AI Blast Zone is listed here, with the source it rests on, how strong that evidence is, and when it was last checked. If you think a link is wrong, out of date or missing, please tell me. Every suggestion is reviewed against its source before anything changes.
Register
| Ref | Link | What the tool says | Evidence | Checked | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R01 | Microsoft Azure → OpenAI Equity stake · Heavy | Holds about 27% of OpenAI’s for-profit arm, unchanged by the April 2026 amendment | VerifiedCompany announcementOperational | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R02 | Microsoft Azure → OpenAI Customer revenue · Heavy | OpenAI has committed to buy a further $250bn of Azure services (Oct 2025) | VerifiedCompany announcementContracted | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R03 | OpenAI → Microsoft Azure Supply · Medium | Azure is OpenAI’s primary cloud, though no longer exclusive since April 2026 | VerifiedCompany announcementOperational | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R04 | Oracle → OpenAI Customer revenue · Heavy | Reported ~$300bn five-year contract from 2027; OpenAI confirms a 4.5 GW Stargate partnership with Oracle; S&P estimates about half of Oracle’s backlog is tied to OpenAI | QualifiedCompany announcementContracted | 17 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R05 | OpenAI → Oracle Supply · Medium | Stargate capacity built and run by Oracle | QualifiedIndependent reportingOperational | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R06 | CoreWeave → OpenAI Customer revenue · Heavy | CoreWeave contracts with OpenAI total up to $22.4bn | VerifiedCompany announcementContracted | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R07 | CoreWeave → Microsoft Azure Customer revenue · Heavy | Microsoft was about two-thirds of CoreWeave’s 2025 revenue | VerifiedRegulatory filingOperational | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R08 | CoreWeave → Meta AI Customer revenue · Heavy | Meta orders total up to about $35bn (2025 and 2026) | VerifiedRegulatory filingContracted | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R09 | Nvidia → CoreWeave Equity stake · Medium | Nvidia holds a growing stake (a further $2bn in Jan 2026) and must buy CoreWeave’s unsold capacity to 2032 | VerifiedRegulatory filingOperational | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R10 | CoreWeave → Nvidia Supply · Heavy | A cloud platform built on Nvidia infrastructure, committed to future Nvidia generations | VerifiedRegulatory filingOperational CoreWeave 8-K press release, Jan 2026 · 26 Jan 2026 | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R11 | CoreWeave → Private credit Funding · Heavy | Debt of about $35bn (mid-2026), much of it secured on GPUs | VerifiedIndependent reportingOperational | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R12 | Nvidia → OpenAI Equity stake · Medium | Nvidia invested $30bn in OpenAI’s 2026 round, replacing an earlier $100bn plan that was dropped | VerifiedCompany announcementOperational | 17 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R13 | OpenAI → Nvidia Supply · Heavy | Most OpenAI compute runs on Nvidia, including about 5 GW on Vera Rubin | QualifiedIndependent reportingOperational | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R14 | AMD → OpenAI Customer revenue · Medium | 6 GW GPU deal, with warrants for up to ~10% of AMD | VerifiedCompany announcementContracted | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R15 | Broadcom → OpenAI Customer revenue · Medium | 10 GW custom chip programme with OpenAI; first chip unveiled June 2026 | VerifiedCompany announcementContracted | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R16 | Amazon AWS → Anthropic Equity stake · Heavy | Amazon has invested $8bn and agreed up to $25bn more (April 2026) | VerifiedCompany announcementContracted | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R17 | Anthropic → Amazon AWS Supply · Heavy | Committed over $100bn on AWS over 10 years, up to 5 GW of Trainium (April 2026) | VerifiedCompany announcementContracted The New Stack, as above · 20 Apr 2026 | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R18 | Google Cloud → Anthropic Equity stake · Heavy | Google holds a stake and invested $10bn more in April 2026, with up to $30bn more tied to milestones | VerifiedCompany announcementOperational | 17 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R19 | Anthropic → Google Cloud Supply · Heavy | Up to one million TPUs from 2026, plus multiple GW more from 2027 | VerifiedCompany announcementContracted | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R20 | Microsoft Azure → Anthropic Customer revenue · Light | $30bn Azure capacity commitment (Nov 2025) | VerifiedCompany announcementContracted | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R21 | Nvidia → Anthropic Equity stake · Light | Up to $10bn investment announced Nov 2025 | VerifiedCompany announcementContracted | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R22 | Amazon AWS → OpenAI Customer revenue · Heavy | OpenAI’s AWS commitment expanded to about $138bn (Feb 2026) | VerifiedCompany announcementContracted | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| N1 | Amazon AWS → OpenAI Equity stake · Medium | Amazon is investing up to $50bn in OpenAI (Feb 2026) | VerifiedCompany announcementContracted | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R23 | SoftBank → OpenAI Equity stake · Heavy | SoftBank will have invested $64.6bn for about 13% (2026) | VerifiedCompany announcementOperational | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R24 | OpenAI → SoftBank Funding · Medium | Relies on SoftBank’s $30bn of staged 2026 tranches | VerifiedCompany announcementOperational SoftBank Group press release, as above · 27 Feb 2026 | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| N2 | SoftBank → Private credit Funding · Medium | $10bn two-year margin loan secured on its OpenAI stake (Aug 2026), repayable early if OpenAI’s share value falls sharply | VerifiedCompany announcementOperational | 17 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R25 | Nvidia → xAI (SpaceX) Equity stake · Light | Nvidia reportedly invested in xAI before SpaceX acquired it (Feb 2026) | QualifiedIndependent reportingOperational | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R26 | xAI (SpaceX) → Nvidia Supply · Heavy | Colossus clusters built on Nvidia GPUs | QualifiedIndependent reportingOperational | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R27 | xAI (SpaceX) → Private credit Funding · Heavy | Debt-financed GPUs: a $7bn Apollo vehicle, and about $40bn more in talks (Oct 2026) | QualifiedIndependent reportingOperational Business Standard, as above · 7 Oct 2026 | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R28 | Meta AI → Private credit Funding · Medium | Hyperion financed through a $27.3bn bond-funded joint venture (Blue Owl 80%, Meta 20%) | VerifiedCompany announcementOperational | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R29 | Private credit → Meta AI Lending · Medium | Bondholders and Blue Owl rely on Meta as Hyperion’s sole tenant | VerifiedIndependent reportingOperational | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R30 | Private credit → CoreWeave Lending · Medium | Lenders hold GPU-backed CoreWeave debt; some declined new CoreWeave debt in Feb 2026 | VerifiedIndependent reportingOperational | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R31 | Private credit → Oracle Lending · Heavy | Banks and private lenders hold large Oracle data-centre loans, some trading below par | QualifiedIndependent reportingOperational | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R32 | Oracle → Private credit Funding · Heavy | Rated one notch above junk (July 2026); relies on new debt, equity and customer prepayments | VerifiedIndependent reportingOperational The Next Web, as above (S&P action of 9 Jul 2026) · 9 Jul 2026 | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R33 | Meta AI → Nvidia Supply · Heavy | Multiyear deal for millions of Nvidia GPUs (Feb 2026) | VerifiedCompany announcementContracted | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R34 | Meta AI → Google Cloud Supply · Medium | Six-year $10bn+ cloud deal, plus reported TPU rental (2026) | Reported onlyIndependent reportingContracted | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R35 | Google DeepMind → Google Cloud Supply · Heavy | Trains and serves on Google’s own TPUs | VerifiedIndependent reportingOperational | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R36 | Google Cloud → Broadcom Supply · Medium | Broadcom co-designs Google’s main TPUs (MediaTek handles some variants) | QualifiedIndependent reportingOperational | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R37 | Microsoft Azure → Nvidia Supply · Heavy | Bought about 485,000 Nvidia Hopper GPUs in 2024, about twice any rival (Omdia estimate) | VerifiedIndependent reportingOperational | 17 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R38 | Amazon AWS → Nvidia Supply · Light | Large Nvidia fleet, but its largest new AI deals run on Amazon’s own Trainium | QualifiedAnalytical inferenceOperational | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R39 | Oracle → Nvidia Supply · Heavy | AI capacity predominantly Nvidia | QualifiedAnalytical inferenceOperational | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| N3 | Oracle → AMD Supply · Light | Deploying 50,000 AMD MI450 GPUs from late 2026 | VerifiedCompany announcementContracted | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R40 | Nvidia → TSMC Supply · Heavy | Leading-edge GPUs made by TSMC | VerifiedRegulatory filingOperational | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R41 | AMD → TSMC Supply · Heavy | Leading-edge chips made by TSMC | VerifiedIndependent reportingOperational | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R42 | Broadcom → TSMC Supply · Heavy | Custom accelerators, including Google TPUs, made by TSMC | VerifiedIndependent reportingOperational | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R43 | Amazon AWS → TSMC Supply · Heavy | Trainium chips, now central to its largest AI deals, made by TSMC | VerifiedIndependent reportingOperational | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R44 | TSMC → ASML Supply · Heavy | Sole supplier of EUV lithography machines | VerifiedRegulatory filingOperational | 17 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R45 | Nvidia → SK Hynix Supply · Medium | Primary supplier of high-bandwidth memory (Nvidia also uses Samsung and Micron) | QualifiedRegulatory filingOperational | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R46 | SK Hynix → Nvidia Customer revenue · Medium | Nvidia is its largest HBM customer | VerifiedIndependent reportingOperational Astute Group, as above · 24 Sep 2025 | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R47 | TSMC → Nvidia Customer revenue · Heavy | Nvidia became TSMC’s largest customer in 2025 | Reported onlyIndependent reportingOperational | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R48 | Nvidia → Microsoft Azure Customer revenue · Medium | Hyperscalers are roughly half of Nvidia’s data-centre business (CFO, Aug 2026); Microsoft is its largest GPU buyer | VerifiedCompany announcementOperational | 17 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R49 | Nvidia → Meta AI Customer revenue · Medium | Meta committed to millions of Nvidia GPUs (Feb 2026) | VerifiedCompany announcementContracted | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R50 | ASML → Mistral Equity stake · Light | Led Mistral’s 2025 round with €1.3bn; its largest shareholder | VerifiedCompany announcementOperational | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R51 | Mistral → Nvidia Supply · Heavy | Own data centres built on Nvidia, including Vera Rubin | VerifiedIndependent reportingOperational | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| N4 | Mistral → Private credit Funding · Light | $830m bank debt for its own data centre (Mar 2026) | VerifiedIndependent reportingOperational | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R52 | Mistral → Microsoft Azure Customer revenue · Medium | Microsoft committed billions to use Mistral’s European capacity (July 2026) | VerifiedCompany announcementContracted | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R53 | Microsoft Azure → Power & grid Supply · Medium | Its 10-K says power limits and grid-connection delays could restrict datacenter expansion | VerifiedRegulatory filingOperational | 17 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R54 | Amazon AWS → Power & grid Supply · Medium | Amazon’s CEO called power AWS’s single biggest capacity constraint (Aug 2025) | VerifiedCompany announcementOperational | 17 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R55 | Google Cloud → Power & grid Supply · Medium | Its 10-K says scaling is increasingly constrained by power, water and land | VerifiedRegulatory filingOperational | 17 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R56 | Oracle → Power & grid Supply · Heavy | Power delays already cited at its New Mexico campus (Sept 2026) | VerifiedIndependent reportingOperational IntuitionLabs 2026 update (citing Reuters, 24 Sept 2026) · 24 Sep 2026 | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R57 | CoreWeave → Power & grid Supply · Medium | Its 10-K names insufficient power as a key risk; some data-centre deliveries were delayed (Nov 2025) | VerifiedRegulatory filingOperational | 17 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R58 | Meta AI → Power & grid Supply · Medium | Hyperion alone may draw up to 5 GW | VerifiedIndependent reportingOperational Forbes, 17 Jun 2026 (Hyperion up to 5 GW) · 17 Jun 2026 | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| R59 | xAI (SpaceX) → Power & grid Supply · Medium | Colossus relies on on-site gas turbines | VerifiedIndependent reportingOperational | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| N5 | Anthropic → xAI (SpaceX) Supply · Medium | Rents all of xAI’s Colossus 1 data centre (about 220,000 Nvidia GPUs) for about $1.25bn a month to 2029, with a 90-day termination clause | VerifiedRegulatory filingOperational | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| N6 | xAI (SpaceX) → Anthropic Customer revenue · Heavy | Anthropic pays about $1.25bn a month, roughly $15bn a year, for Colossus 1 compute (signed May 2026) | VerifiedRegulatory filingOperational | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| N7 | Google Cloud → xAI (SpaceX) Supply · Light | Rents about 110,000 Nvidia GPUs from SpaceX as bridge capacity to June 2029; either side can end it on 90 days’ notice from 2027 | VerifiedRegulatory filingOperational | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
| N8 | xAI (SpaceX) → Google Cloud Customer revenue · Medium | Google pays $920m a month for compute from October 2026 (filed June 2026) | VerifiedRegulatory filingOperational | 15 Oct 2026 | Suggest a change |
Weight shows how much of the exposed company’s business or capacity rests on the link, and how hard it would be to replace. It is not a probability of failure or an estimate of loss. Definitions and limits
Change log
Every change to the tool, with its date. The reasons are in the register.
Show all 65 changes
| Date | Ref | Link | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 2026 | R57 | CoreWeave → Power & grid | Source strengthened: CoreWeave-specific source (10-K) |
| 17 Oct 2026 | R55 | Google Cloud → Power & grid | Source strengthened: Google-specific source (10-K) |
| 17 Oct 2026 | R54 | Amazon AWS → Power & grid | Source strengthened: AWS-specific source (CEO on earnings call) |
| 17 Oct 2026 | R53 | Microsoft Azure → Power & grid | Source strengthened: Microsoft-specific source (10-K) |
| 17 Oct 2026 | R48 | Nvidia → Microsoft Azure | Source strengthened: Company figure for hyperscaler share added |
| 17 Oct 2026 | R44 | TSMC → ASML | Source strengthened: Replaced secondary source with ASML’s annual report |
| 17 Oct 2026 | R37 | Microsoft Azure → Nvidia | Source strengthened: Specific figure added (Omdia) |
| 17 Oct 2026 | N2 | SoftBank → Private credit | Source strengthened: Terms confirmed from SoftBank’s financial report |
| 17 Oct 2026 | R18 | Google Cloud → Anthropic | Source strengthened: Confirmed on the record by Anthropic and Google; state Announced → Operational |
| 17 Oct 2026 | R12 | Nvidia → OpenAI | Source strengthened: Confirmed against OpenAI’s round announcement |
| 17 Oct 2026 | R04 | Oracle → OpenAI | Source strengthened: Relationship confirmed by OpenAI; value still reported |
| 15 Oct 2026 | N8 | xAI (SpaceX) → Google Cloud | Link added, from SpaceX’s IPO filings |
| 15 Oct 2026 | N7 | Google Cloud → xAI (SpaceX) | Link added, from SpaceX’s IPO filings |
| 15 Oct 2026 | N6 | xAI (SpaceX) → Anthropic | Link added, from SpaceX’s IPO filings |
| 15 Oct 2026 | N5 | Anthropic → xAI (SpaceX) | Link added, from SpaceX’s IPO filings |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R59 | xAI (SpaceX) → Power & grid | Wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R58 | Meta AI → Power & grid | Wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R56 | Oracle → Power & grid | Weight 2→3; wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R52 | Mistral → Microsoft Azure | Link redefined (was mistral → microsoft azure, supply); weight 1→2; marked disclosed; wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | N4 | Mistral → Private credit | New link added |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R51 | Mistral → Nvidia | Weight 2→3; wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R50 | ASML → Mistral | Marked disclosed; wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R49 | Nvidia → Meta AI | Weight 1→2; wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R47 | TSMC → Nvidia | Weight 2→3; marked reported; wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R45 | Nvidia → SK Hynix | Wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R43 | Amazon AWS → TSMC | Weight 2→3; wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R42 | Broadcom → TSMC | Wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | N3 | Oracle → AMD | New link added |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R39 | Oracle → Nvidia | Wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R38 | Amazon AWS → Nvidia | Weight 2→1; wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R36 | Google Cloud → Broadcom | Wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R34 | Meta AI → Google Cloud | Weight 1→2; wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R33 | Meta AI → Nvidia | Wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R32 | Oracle → Private credit | Weight 2→3; marked disclosed; wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R31 | Private credit → Oracle | Weight 2→3; wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R30 | Private credit → CoreWeave | Marked disclosed; wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R29 | Private credit → Meta AI | Marked disclosed; wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R28 | Meta AI → Private credit | Marked disclosed; wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R27 | xAI (SpaceX) → Private credit | Weight 2→3; wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R25 | Nvidia → xAI (SpaceX) | Wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | N2 | SoftBank → Private credit | New link added |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R24 | OpenAI → SoftBank | Marked disclosed; wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R23 | SoftBank → OpenAI | Marked disclosed; wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | N1 | Amazon AWS → OpenAI | New link added |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R22 | Amazon AWS → OpenAI | Weight 1→3; marked disclosed; wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R21 | Nvidia → Anthropic | Marked disclosed |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R20 | Microsoft Azure → Anthropic | Marked disclosed; wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R19 | Anthropic → Google Cloud | Weight 2→3; marked disclosed; wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R18 | Google Cloud → Anthropic | Weight 2→3; marked reported; wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R17 | Anthropic → Amazon AWS | Wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R16 | Amazon AWS → Anthropic | Wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R15 | Broadcom → OpenAI | Marked disclosed; wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R14 | AMD → OpenAI | Marked disclosed; wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R13 | OpenAI → Nvidia | Wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R12 | Nvidia → OpenAI | Wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R11 | CoreWeave → Private credit | Wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R10 | CoreWeave → Nvidia | Wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R09 | Nvidia → CoreWeave | Weight 1→2; wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R08 | CoreWeave → Meta AI | Weight 2→3; marked disclosed; wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R07 | CoreWeave → Microsoft Azure | Wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R06 | CoreWeave → OpenAI | Marked disclosed; wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R04 | Oracle → OpenAI | Wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R03 | OpenAI → Microsoft Azure | Wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R02 | Microsoft Azure → OpenAI | Marked disclosed; wording updated |
| 15 Oct 2026 | R01 | Microsoft Azure → OpenAI | Wording updated |
Suggest a change
Thank you. Your suggestion has reached me. I review every one against its source; if it is accepted, the change will appear in the change log above.