The AI Blast Zone · Evidence register

The evidence behind every link

Every relationship in the AI Blast Zone is listed here, with the source it rests on, how strong that evidence is, and when it was last checked. If you think a link is wrong, out of date or missing, please tell me. Every suggestion is reviewed against its source before anything changes.

67 links · last full review 15 October 2026 · monitored monthly for changes

Register

RefLinkWhat the tool saysEvidenceChecked
R01
Equity stake · Heavy
Holds about 27% of OpenAI’s for-profit arm, unchanged by the April 2026 amendmentVerifiedCompany announcementOperational15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R02
Customer revenue · Heavy
OpenAI has committed to buy a further $250bn of Azure services (Oct 2025)VerifiedCompany announcementContracted15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R03
Supply · Medium
Azure is OpenAI’s primary cloud, though no longer exclusive since April 2026VerifiedCompany announcementOperational15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R04
Customer revenue · Heavy
Reported ~$300bn five-year contract from 2027; OpenAI confirms a 4.5 GW Stargate partnership with Oracle; S&P estimates about half of Oracle’s backlog is tied to OpenAIQualifiedCompany announcementContracted17 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R05
Supply · Medium
Stargate capacity built and run by OracleQualifiedIndependent reportingOperational15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R06
Customer revenue · Heavy
CoreWeave contracts with OpenAI total up to $22.4bnVerifiedCompany announcementContracted15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R07
Customer revenue · Heavy
Microsoft was about two-thirds of CoreWeave’s 2025 revenueVerifiedRegulatory filingOperational15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R08
Customer revenue · Heavy
Meta orders total up to about $35bn (2025 and 2026)VerifiedRegulatory filingContracted15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R09
Equity stake · Medium
Nvidia holds a growing stake (a further $2bn in Jan 2026) and must buy CoreWeave’s unsold capacity to 2032VerifiedRegulatory filingOperational15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R10
Supply · Heavy
A cloud platform built on Nvidia infrastructure, committed to future Nvidia generationsVerifiedRegulatory filingOperational15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R11
Funding · Heavy
Debt of about $35bn (mid-2026), much of it secured on GPUsVerifiedIndependent reportingOperational15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R12
Equity stake · Medium
Nvidia invested $30bn in OpenAI’s 2026 round, replacing an earlier $100bn plan that was droppedVerifiedCompany announcementOperational17 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R13
Supply · Heavy
Most OpenAI compute runs on Nvidia, including about 5 GW on Vera RubinQualifiedIndependent reportingOperational15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R14
Customer revenue · Medium
6 GW GPU deal, with warrants for up to ~10% of AMDVerifiedCompany announcementContracted15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R15
Customer revenue · Medium
10 GW custom chip programme with OpenAI; first chip unveiled June 2026VerifiedCompany announcementContracted15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R16
Equity stake · Heavy
Amazon has invested $8bn and agreed up to $25bn more (April 2026)VerifiedCompany announcementContracted15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R17
Supply · Heavy
Committed over $100bn on AWS over 10 years, up to 5 GW of Trainium (April 2026)VerifiedCompany announcementContracted15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R18
Equity stake · Heavy
Google holds a stake and invested $10bn more in April 2026, with up to $30bn more tied to milestonesVerifiedCompany announcementOperational17 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R19
Supply · Heavy
Up to one million TPUs from 2026, plus multiple GW more from 2027VerifiedCompany announcementContracted15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R20
Customer revenue · Light
$30bn Azure capacity commitment (Nov 2025)VerifiedCompany announcementContracted15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R21
Equity stake · Light
Up to $10bn investment announced Nov 2025VerifiedCompany announcementContracted15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R22
Customer revenue · Heavy
OpenAI’s AWS commitment expanded to about $138bn (Feb 2026)VerifiedCompany announcementContracted15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
N1
Equity stake · Medium
Amazon is investing up to $50bn in OpenAI (Feb 2026)VerifiedCompany announcementContracted15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R23
Equity stake · Heavy
SoftBank will have invested $64.6bn for about 13% (2026)VerifiedCompany announcementOperational15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R24
Funding · Medium
Relies on SoftBank’s $30bn of staged 2026 tranchesVerifiedCompany announcementOperational15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
N2
Funding · Medium
$10bn two-year margin loan secured on its OpenAI stake (Aug 2026), repayable early if OpenAI’s share value falls sharplyVerifiedCompany announcementOperational17 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R25
Equity stake · Light
Nvidia reportedly invested in xAI before SpaceX acquired it (Feb 2026)QualifiedIndependent reportingOperational15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R26
Supply · Heavy
Colossus clusters built on Nvidia GPUsQualifiedIndependent reportingOperational15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R27
Funding · Heavy
Debt-financed GPUs: a $7bn Apollo vehicle, and about $40bn more in talks (Oct 2026)QualifiedIndependent reportingOperational15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R28
Funding · Medium
Hyperion financed through a $27.3bn bond-funded joint venture (Blue Owl 80%, Meta 20%)VerifiedCompany announcementOperational15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R29
Lending · Medium
Bondholders and Blue Owl rely on Meta as Hyperion’s sole tenantVerifiedIndependent reportingOperational15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R30
Lending · Medium
Lenders hold GPU-backed CoreWeave debt; some declined new CoreWeave debt in Feb 2026VerifiedIndependent reportingOperational15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R31
Lending · Heavy
Banks and private lenders hold large Oracle data-centre loans, some trading below parQualifiedIndependent reportingOperational15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R32
Funding · Heavy
Rated one notch above junk (July 2026); relies on new debt, equity and customer prepaymentsVerifiedIndependent reportingOperational15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R33
Supply · Heavy
Multiyear deal for millions of Nvidia GPUs (Feb 2026)VerifiedCompany announcementContracted15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R34
Supply · Medium
Six-year $10bn+ cloud deal, plus reported TPU rental (2026)Reported onlyIndependent reportingContracted15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R35
Supply · Heavy
Trains and serves on Google’s own TPUsVerifiedIndependent reportingOperational15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R36
Supply · Medium
Broadcom co-designs Google’s main TPUs (MediaTek handles some variants)QualifiedIndependent reportingOperational15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R37
Supply · Heavy
Bought about 485,000 Nvidia Hopper GPUs in 2024, about twice any rival (Omdia estimate)VerifiedIndependent reportingOperational17 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R38
Supply · Light
Large Nvidia fleet, but its largest new AI deals run on Amazon’s own TrainiumQualifiedAnalytical inferenceOperational15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R39
Supply · Heavy
AI capacity predominantly NvidiaQualifiedAnalytical inferenceOperational15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
N3
Supply · Light
Deploying 50,000 AMD MI450 GPUs from late 2026VerifiedCompany announcementContracted15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R40
Supply · Heavy
Leading-edge GPUs made by TSMCVerifiedRegulatory filingOperational15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R41
Supply · Heavy
Leading-edge chips made by TSMCVerifiedIndependent reportingOperational15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R42
Supply · Heavy
Custom accelerators, including Google TPUs, made by TSMCVerifiedIndependent reportingOperational15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R43
Supply · Heavy
Trainium chips, now central to its largest AI deals, made by TSMCVerifiedIndependent reportingOperational15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R44
Supply · Heavy
Sole supplier of EUV lithography machinesVerifiedRegulatory filingOperational17 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R45
Supply · Medium
Primary supplier of high-bandwidth memory (Nvidia also uses Samsung and Micron)QualifiedRegulatory filingOperational15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R46
Customer revenue · Medium
Nvidia is its largest HBM customerVerifiedIndependent reportingOperational
Astute Group, as above · 24 Sep 2025
15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R47
Customer revenue · Heavy
Nvidia became TSMC’s largest customer in 2025Reported onlyIndependent reportingOperational15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R48
Customer revenue · Medium
Hyperscalers are roughly half of Nvidia’s data-centre business (CFO, Aug 2026); Microsoft is its largest GPU buyerVerifiedCompany announcementOperational17 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R49
Customer revenue · Medium
Meta committed to millions of Nvidia GPUs (Feb 2026)VerifiedCompany announcementContracted15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R50
Equity stake · Light
Led Mistral’s 2025 round with €1.3bn; its largest shareholderVerifiedCompany announcementOperational15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R51
Supply · Heavy
Own data centres built on Nvidia, including Vera RubinVerifiedIndependent reportingOperational15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
N4
Funding · Light
$830m bank debt for its own data centre (Mar 2026)VerifiedIndependent reportingOperational15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R52
Customer revenue · Medium
Microsoft committed billions to use Mistral’s European capacity (July 2026)VerifiedCompany announcementContracted15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R53
Supply · Medium
Its 10-K says power limits and grid-connection delays could restrict datacenter expansionVerifiedRegulatory filingOperational17 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R54
Supply · Medium
Amazon’s CEO called power AWS’s single biggest capacity constraint (Aug 2025)VerifiedCompany announcementOperational17 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R55
Supply · Medium
Its 10-K says scaling is increasingly constrained by power, water and landVerifiedRegulatory filingOperational17 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R56
Supply · Heavy
Power delays already cited at its New Mexico campus (Sept 2026)VerifiedIndependent reportingOperational15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R57
Supply · Medium
Its 10-K names insufficient power as a key risk; some data-centre deliveries were delayed (Nov 2025)VerifiedRegulatory filingOperational17 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R58
Supply · Medium
Hyperion alone may draw up to 5 GWVerifiedIndependent reportingOperational15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
R59
Supply · Medium
Colossus relies on on-site gas turbinesVerifiedIndependent reportingOperational15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
N5
Supply · Medium
Rents all of xAI’s Colossus 1 data centre (about 220,000 Nvidia GPUs) for about $1.25bn a month to 2029, with a 90-day termination clauseVerifiedRegulatory filingOperational15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
N6
Customer revenue · Heavy
Anthropic pays about $1.25bn a month, roughly $15bn a year, for Colossus 1 compute (signed May 2026)VerifiedRegulatory filingOperational15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
N7
Supply · Light
Rents about 110,000 Nvidia GPUs from SpaceX as bridge capacity to June 2029; either side can end it on 90 days’ notice from 2027VerifiedRegulatory filingOperational15 Oct 2026Suggest a change
N8
Customer revenue · Medium
Google pays $920m a month for compute from October 2026 (filed June 2026)VerifiedRegulatory filingOperational15 Oct 2026Suggest a change

Weight shows how much of the exposed company’s business or capacity rests on the link, and how hard it would be to replace. It is not a probability of failure or an estimate of loss. Definitions and limits

Change log

Every change to the tool, with its date. The reasons are in the register.

Show all 65 changes
DateRefLinkChange
17 Oct 2026R57CoreWeave → Power & gridSource strengthened: CoreWeave-specific source (10-K)
17 Oct 2026R55Google Cloud → Power & gridSource strengthened: Google-specific source (10-K)
17 Oct 2026R54Amazon AWS → Power & gridSource strengthened: AWS-specific source (CEO on earnings call)
17 Oct 2026R53Microsoft Azure → Power & gridSource strengthened: Microsoft-specific source (10-K)
17 Oct 2026R48Nvidia → Microsoft AzureSource strengthened: Company figure for hyperscaler share added
17 Oct 2026R44TSMC → ASMLSource strengthened: Replaced secondary source with ASML’s annual report
17 Oct 2026R37Microsoft Azure → NvidiaSource strengthened: Specific figure added (Omdia)
17 Oct 2026N2SoftBank → Private creditSource strengthened: Terms confirmed from SoftBank’s financial report
17 Oct 2026R18Google Cloud → AnthropicSource strengthened: Confirmed on the record by Anthropic and Google; state Announced → Operational
17 Oct 2026R12Nvidia → OpenAISource strengthened: Confirmed against OpenAI’s round announcement
17 Oct 2026R04Oracle → OpenAISource strengthened: Relationship confirmed by OpenAI; value still reported
15 Oct 2026N8xAI (SpaceX) → Google CloudLink added, from SpaceX’s IPO filings
15 Oct 2026N7Google Cloud → xAI (SpaceX)Link added, from SpaceX’s IPO filings
15 Oct 2026N6xAI (SpaceX) → AnthropicLink added, from SpaceX’s IPO filings
15 Oct 2026N5Anthropic → xAI (SpaceX)Link added, from SpaceX’s IPO filings
15 Oct 2026R59xAI (SpaceX) → Power & gridWording updated
15 Oct 2026R58Meta AI → Power & gridWording updated
15 Oct 2026R56Oracle → Power & gridWeight 2→3; wording updated
15 Oct 2026R52Mistral → Microsoft AzureLink redefined (was mistral → microsoft azure, supply); weight 1→2; marked disclosed; wording updated
15 Oct 2026N4Mistral → Private creditNew link added
15 Oct 2026R51Mistral → NvidiaWeight 2→3; wording updated
15 Oct 2026R50ASML → MistralMarked disclosed; wording updated
15 Oct 2026R49Nvidia → Meta AIWeight 1→2; wording updated
15 Oct 2026R47TSMC → NvidiaWeight 2→3; marked reported; wording updated
15 Oct 2026R45Nvidia → SK HynixWording updated
15 Oct 2026R43Amazon AWS → TSMCWeight 2→3; wording updated
15 Oct 2026R42Broadcom → TSMCWording updated
15 Oct 2026N3Oracle → AMDNew link added
15 Oct 2026R39Oracle → NvidiaWording updated
15 Oct 2026R38Amazon AWS → NvidiaWeight 2→1; wording updated
15 Oct 2026R36Google Cloud → BroadcomWording updated
15 Oct 2026R34Meta AI → Google CloudWeight 1→2; wording updated
15 Oct 2026R33Meta AI → NvidiaWording updated
15 Oct 2026R32Oracle → Private creditWeight 2→3; marked disclosed; wording updated
15 Oct 2026R31Private credit → OracleWeight 2→3; wording updated
15 Oct 2026R30Private credit → CoreWeaveMarked disclosed; wording updated
15 Oct 2026R29Private credit → Meta AIMarked disclosed; wording updated
15 Oct 2026R28Meta AI → Private creditMarked disclosed; wording updated
15 Oct 2026R27xAI (SpaceX) → Private creditWeight 2→3; wording updated
15 Oct 2026R25Nvidia → xAI (SpaceX)Wording updated
15 Oct 2026N2SoftBank → Private creditNew link added
15 Oct 2026R24OpenAI → SoftBankMarked disclosed; wording updated
15 Oct 2026R23SoftBank → OpenAIMarked disclosed; wording updated
15 Oct 2026N1Amazon AWS → OpenAINew link added
15 Oct 2026R22Amazon AWS → OpenAIWeight 1→3; marked disclosed; wording updated
15 Oct 2026R21Nvidia → AnthropicMarked disclosed
15 Oct 2026R20Microsoft Azure → AnthropicMarked disclosed; wording updated
15 Oct 2026R19Anthropic → Google CloudWeight 2→3; marked disclosed; wording updated
15 Oct 2026R18Google Cloud → AnthropicWeight 2→3; marked reported; wording updated
15 Oct 2026R17Anthropic → Amazon AWSWording updated
15 Oct 2026R16Amazon AWS → AnthropicWording updated
15 Oct 2026R15Broadcom → OpenAIMarked disclosed; wording updated
15 Oct 2026R14AMD → OpenAIMarked disclosed; wording updated
15 Oct 2026R13OpenAI → NvidiaWording updated
15 Oct 2026R12Nvidia → OpenAIWording updated
15 Oct 2026R11CoreWeave → Private creditWording updated
15 Oct 2026R10CoreWeave → NvidiaWording updated
15 Oct 2026R09Nvidia → CoreWeaveWeight 1→2; wording updated
15 Oct 2026R08CoreWeave → Meta AIWeight 2→3; marked disclosed; wording updated
15 Oct 2026R07CoreWeave → Microsoft AzureWording updated
15 Oct 2026R06CoreWeave → OpenAIMarked disclosed; wording updated
15 Oct 2026R04Oracle → OpenAIWording updated
15 Oct 2026R03OpenAI → Microsoft AzureWording updated
15 Oct 2026R02Microsoft Azure → OpenAIMarked disclosed; wording updated
15 Oct 2026R01Microsoft Azure → OpenAIWording updated

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